Аннотация:The last regional elections in Andalusia in June 2022 have led to an unprecedented electoral shift to the right. Being the first elections of a new electoral period, this article, after analyzing the patterns of mobilization, voting and transfers of the regional elections, attempts to statistically analyze the influence of various conjunctural components of the right-wing vote in Andalusia —assessment of the situations economic and political, image of management and leadership and origin of issues relevant to the electorate—, both for the electorate as a whole and for specific segments of the mobilized and former left-wing voters, to assess to what extent the election portends a new electoral cycle at Andalusian and national level, marked by the return to imperfect bipartisanship with an electoral predominance of the center-right. The article uses the September 2021 CENTRA Survey and pre-election data from the CIS to finally build binary logistic regression models. It is concluded that the results of the first elections for the reunification of the center-right vote are linked to the retrospective assessment of the economic and political situations, the assessments of the management and image of Juan Manuel Moreno and the greater influence of national issues for the electorate.
