Assessing transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in Englandстатья из журнала
Аннотация: The SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7, designated variant of concern (VOC) 202012/01 by Public Health England1, was first identified in the UK in late summer to early autumn 20202. Whole-genome SARS-CoV-2 sequence data collected from community-based diagnostic testing for COVID-19 show an extremely rapid expansion of the B.1.1.7 lineage during autumn 2020, suggesting that it has a selective advantage. Here we show that changes in VOC frequency inferred from genetic data correspond closely to changes inferred by S gene target failures (SGTF) in community-based diagnostic PCR testing. Analysis of trends in SGTF and non-SGTF case numbers in local areas across England shows that B.1.1.7 has higher transmissibility than non-VOC lineages, even if it has a different latent period or generation time. The SGTF data indicate a transient shift in the age composition of reported cases, with cases of B.1.1.7 including a larger share of under 20-year-olds than non-VOC cases. We estimated time-varying reproduction numbers for B.1.1.7 and co-circulating lineages using SGTF and genomic data. The best-supported models did not indicate a substantial difference in VOC transmissibility among different age groups, but all analyses agreed that B.1.1.7 has a substantial transmission advantage over other lineages, with a 50% to 100% higher reproduction number. Genetic and testing data from England show that the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 has a transmission advantage over other lineages.
Год издания: 2021
Авторы: Erik Volz, Swapnil Mishra, Meera Chand, Jeffrey C. Barrett, Robert Johnson, Lily Geidelberg, Wes Hinsley, Daniel J. Laydon, Gavin Dabrera, Áine O’Toole, Robert Amato, Manon Ragonnet‐Cronin, Ian Harrison, Ben Jackson, Cristina V. Ariani, Olivia Boyd, Nicholas J. Loman, John T. McCrone, Sónia Gonçalves, David Jorgensen, Richard Myers, Verity Hill, David K. Jackson, Katy A. M. Gaythorpe, Natalie Groves, John Sillitoe, Dominic Kwiatkowski, Seth Flaxman, Oliver Ratmann, Samir Bhatt, Susan Hopkins, Axel Gandy, Andrew Rambaut, Neil M. Ferguson
Издательство: Nature Portfolio
Источник: Nature
Ключевые слова: SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research, Animal Virus Infections Studies, Viral gastroenteritis research and epidemiology
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Том: 593
Выпуск: 7858
Страницы: 266–269