Duration of SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding in faeces as a parameter for wastewater-based epidemiology: Re-analysis of patient data using a shedding dynamics modelpreprint
Аннотация: Abstract Background Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is one of the most promising approaches to effectively monitor the spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The virus concentration in faeces and its temporal variations are essential information for WBE. While some clinical studies have reported severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) concentrations in faeces, the value varies amongst patients and changes over time. Aim The present study aimed to examine how the temporal variations in the concentration of virus in faeces affect the monitoring of disease incidence. We re-analysed the experimental findings of clinical studies to estimate the duration of virus shedding and the faecal virus concentration. Method Available experimental data as of 23 October, 2020 were collected and patient data reported in Germany were included for further analysis. The viral shedding kinetics was modelled, and the dynamic model was fitted to the collected experimental data by a Bayesian framework. Using samples of posterior distributions, the duration of viral shedding and the concentration of virus copies in faeces over time were computed. Results We estimated the median concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in faeces as 2.6 (95% Credible Interval (CrI): 0.22–4.8) log copies per gram (g) of faeces over the shedding period, and our model implied that the duration of viral shedding was 23.2 days (95% CrI: 19.5–31.5), given the current standard quantification limit (Ct = 40). With simulated incidences, our results also indicated that a one-week delay between symptom onset and wastewater sampling increased the estimation of incidence by 13.5%. Conclusions Our results demonstrated that the temporal variation in virus concentration in faeces affects microbial monitoring systems such as WBE. The present study also implied the need for adjusting the estimates of virus concentration in faeces by incorporating the kinetics of unobserved concentrations. The method used in this study is easily implemented in further simulations; therefore, the results of this study might contribute to enhancing disease surveillance and risk assessments that require quantities of virus to be excreted into the environment.
Год издания: 2020
Авторы: Fuminari Miura, Masaaki Kitajima, Ryosuke Omori
Издательство: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Источник: medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)
Ключевые слова: SARS-CoV-2 detection and testing, SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research, COVID-19 Clinical Research Studies
Другие ссылки: medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) (HTML)
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