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Arctic Sea Ice inCMIP6 Dirk NotzJakob DörrDavid A. Bailey2020 год

Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6
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Аннотация: Abstract We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area <1 × 10 6 km 2 ) in September for the first time before the Year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 examined here.
Год издания: 2020
Авторы: Dirk Notz, Jakob Dörr, David A. Bailey, Ed Blockley, Mitchell Bushuk, Jens Boldingh Debernard, Evelien Dekker, Patricia DeRepentigny, David Docquier, Neven S. Fučkar, John C. Fyfe, Alexandra Jahn, Marika M. Holland, Elizabeth Hunke, Doroteaciro Iovino, Narges Khosravi, Gurvan Madec, François Massonnet, Siobhan O’Farrell, Alek Petty, Arun Rana, Lettie A. Roach, Erica Rosenblum, Clément Rousset, Tido Semmler, Julienne Strœve, Takahiro Toyoda, Bruno Tremblay, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Martin Vancoppenolle
Издательство: American Geophysical Union
Источник: Geophysical Research Letters
Ключевые слова: Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics, Climate variability and models, Methane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
Другие ссылки: Geophysical Research Letters (PDF)
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