Аннотация:What are the medium-to long-term effects of pandemics?How do they differ from other economic disasters?We study major pandemics using the rates of return on assets stretching back to the 14th century.Significant macroeconomic after-effects of pandemics persist for about decades, with real rates of return substantially depressed, in stark contrast to what happens after wars.Our findings are consistent with the neoclassical growth model: capital is destroyed in wars, but not in pandemics; pandemics instead may induce relative labor scarcity and/or a shift to greater precautionary savings.
