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The SharedSocioeconomicPathways and theirenergy, land use, andgreenhouse gasemissionsimplications: Anoverview Keywan RiahiDetlef P. van VuurenElmar Kriegler2016 год

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
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Аннотация: This paper presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO2 to more than 120 GtCO2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).
Год издания: 2016
Авторы: Keywan Riahi, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Elmar Kriegler, Jae Edmonds, Brian C. O’Neill, Shinichiro Fujimori, Nico Bauer, Katherine Calvin, Rob Dellink, Oliver Fricko, Wolfgang Lutz, Alexander Popp, Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, Samir KC, Marian Leimbach, Leiwen Jiang, Tom Kram, Shilpa Rao, Johannes Emmerling, Kristie L. Ebi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlík, Florian Humpenöder, Lara Aleluia Reis, Steve Smith, Elke Stehfest, Valentina Bosetti, Jiyong Eom, David Gernaat, Toshihiko Masui, Joeri Rogelj, Jessica Strefler, Laurent Drouet, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, Mathijs Harmsen, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Lavinia Baumstark, Jonathan Doelman, Mikiko Kainuma, Zbigniew Klimont, Giacomo Marangoni, Hermann Lotze‐Campen, Michael Obersteiner, Andrzej Tabeau, Massimo Tavoni
Издательство: Elsevier BV
Источник: Global Environmental Change
Ключевые слова: Climate Change Policy and Economics, Sustainability and Climate Change Governance, Social Acceptance of Renewable Energy
Другие ссылки: Global Environmental Change (HTML)
OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (HTML)
Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (HTML)
Spiral (Imperial College London) (PDF)
Spiral (Imperial College London) (HTML)
Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (PDF)
Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (HTML)
Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (PDF)
Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (HTML)
IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (HTML)