Аннотация:This document re-examines the effect of Aid to Families With Dependent Children (AFDC) benefits on early nonmarital childbearing based on recent research by Mark Rosenzweig. In his studies Rosenzweig finds that AFDC benefits have a statistically significant and quantitatively large positive effect on early nonmarital fertility. His analysis differed in three important ways: 1) it included fertility through age 22; 2) it incorporated a marital birth as a separate choice; and 3) it included both state and cohort fixed effects to control for unmeasured characteristics that may influence early fertility. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics the researchers were able to reproduce Rosenzweigs main finding that AFDC generosity influences nonmarital childbearing when state and cohort fixed-effects are included. However model specification matters significantly. Estimates of AFDC effects on early nonmarital births are very sensitive to inclusion of state effects and also to the exact specification of the state fixed effect. Findings in this study highlighted several issues for future research.
