Improving the Performance of Popular Supply Chain Forecasting Techniquesстатья из журнала
Аннотация: AbstractThis article empirically investigates the extension of the use of an aggregation-disaggregation forecasting approach for intermittent demand (ADIDA) to fast-moving demand data, addressing the need of supply chain managers for accurate forecasts. After a brief introduction to the framework and its background, an experiment is set up to examine its performance on data from the M3-Competition. The relevant forecasting methodology and in-sample optimization techniques are described in detail, as well as the core experimental structure and real data. Empirical results of forecasting accuracy performance are presented and discussed, placing further emphasis on the managerial implications of the framework’s being a simple, cost-efficient, and universally implementable forecasting method self-improving mechanism. Finally, all conclusions are summarized and guidelines for prospective research are proposed.Keywords:: forecastingfast-moving demandtemporal aggregationin-sample optimizationforecasting frameworkempirical investigation Additional informationNotes on contributorsGeorgios P. SpithourakisGeorgios SPITHOURAKIS holds a Diploma in Electrical and Computer Engineering from the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA), Greece. Since 2009, he has been a Research & Development Assistant at the Forecasting & Strategy Unit, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, NTUA.Fotios PetropoulosFotios PETROPOULOS is a Research Associate in the School of Electrical and Computer Engineering at the National Technical University of Athens. He is the coordinator of the Forecasting & Strategy Unit directed by professor V. Assimakopoulos. His research interests are in Statistics, Timeseries forecasting, Business Forecasting Information Systems, Windows Programming and Software Engineering. He has published several original articles in referred academic journals (JORS, IJEF) and presented his work in major international conferences (INFORMS, ISF, EURO, OR).M. Zied BabaiM. Zied BABAI is Associate Professor in Operations Management at BEM-Bordeaux Management School. He holds a PhD in Industrial Engineering from the Ecole Centrale Paris where he also worked as a Teaching and Research Assistant for three years. From October 2006 to September 2008, he joined the Centre for Operational Research and Applied Statistics at the Salford Business School (UK), working on a project funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC, UK). His research interests relate primarily to demand forecasting and inventory management with a special emphasis on the development of quantitative models.Konstantinos NikolopoulosKonstantinos NIKOLOPOULOS is the Director of forTANK. He is an expert in Demand Forecasting, forecasting the impact of Special Events, and Forecasting Support Systems. He received his Engineering Doctorate from National Technical University of Athens. He has worked in Lancaster University Management School, then in Manchester Business School and now holds the Chair in Decision Sciences in Bangor Business School and is Visiting Associate in Herbert Simon Institute and Lancaster Centre for Forecasting. His work has appeared in the International Journal of Forecasting. He is co-originator of the Theta model and acted in 2004–2005 as Research Officer for the EPSRC research project “The Effective Design and Use of Forecasting Support Systems for Supply Chain Management”.Vassilios AssimakopoulosVassilios ASSIMAKOPOULOS is a professor of Decision Support Systems at the School of Electrical and Computer Engineers of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). He has studied the applications of the Decision Making Systems on modern problems of entrepreneurial planning. He is specialized in the areas of Strategic Administration, Planning and Implementation of Information Systems for the Management of IT Projects, Management of Operational Resources, Statistics and Forecasts based on Time Sequences. He is the director of the Forecasting and Strategy Unit (FSU) of the NTUA. He has been the Digital Planning Secretary Special for the period 2004–2009.
Год издания: 2011
Авторы: Georgios Spithourakis, Fotios Petropoulos, M. Zied Babaï, Κωνσταντίνος Νικολόπουλος, Vassilios Assimakopoulos
Издательство: Taylor & Francis
Источник: Supply Chain Forum an International Journal
Ключевые слова: Forecasting Techniques and Applications, Stock Market Forecasting Methods, Advanced Statistical Process Monitoring
Открытый доступ: closed
Том: 12
Выпуск: 4
Страницы: 16–25