1. Главная
  2. Ресурсы
  3. Библиотечный поиск
Measuring EconomicPolicy Uncertainty Scott BakerNicholas BloomSteven J. Davis2013 год

Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty
статья

Полный текстСтраница публикацииПубликация в OpenAlex
Аннотация: Many commentators argue that uncertainty about tax, spending, monetary and regulatory policy slowed the recovery from the 2007-2009 recession. To investigate this we develop a new index of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), built on three components: the frequency of newspaper references to economic policy uncertainty, the number of federal tax code provisions set to expire, and the extent of forecaster disagreement over future inflation and government purchases. This EPU index spikes near consequential presidential elections and major events such as the Gulf wars and the 9/11 attack. It also rises steeply from 2008 onward. We then evaluate our EPU index, first on a sample of 3,500 human audited news articles, and second against other measures of policy uncertainty, with these suggesting our EPU index is a good proxy for actual economic policy uncertainty. Drilling down into our index we find that the post-2008 increase was driven mainly by tax, spending and healthcare policy uncertainty. Finally, VAR estimates show that an innovation in policy uncertainty equal to the increase from 2006 to 2011 foreshadows declines of up to 2.3% in GDP and 2.3 million in employment.
Год издания: 2013
Авторы: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steven J. Davis
Издательство: RELX Group (Netherlands)
Источник: SSRN Electronic Journal
Ключевые слова: Market Dynamics and Volatility, Monetary Policy and Economic Impact, Energy, Environment, Economic Growth
Другие ссылки: SSRN Electronic Journal (HTML)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (HTML)
London School of Economics and Political Science Research Online (London School of Economics and Political Science) (HTML)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (HTML)
CiteSeer X (The Pennsylvania State University) (PDF)
CiteSeer X (The Pennsylvania State University) (HTML)