Аннотация:Abstract. Altitudinal and latitudinal distribution limits of trees are mainly controlled by temperature. Therefore climate warming is expected to induce upslope or poleward migrations. In the Swiss Central Alps, summers in the period 1982‐1991 were on average 0.8 °C warmer than those of the period 30 yr before. We investigated whether populations of conifers at the montane Pinus sylvestris‐Pinus cembra ecocline exhibit demographic trends in response to that warming. We found no evidence for this. Young seedlings of Pinus sylvestris , the species which is expected to expand its range upward in a warmer climate, were virtually absent from all sites, whereas large fractions of Pinus cembra populations were observed in the seedling and juvenile categories even below the present lower distribution limit of adult trees. This suggests that there are no major altitudinal shifts in response to the recent sequence of warmer summers. Germination and seedling survival trials with Pinus sylvestris suggest that temperature per se would not exclude this species even from establishing at the current treeline in the Swiss Central Alps. Similar results were found at the polar treeline. Phytotron tests of seedling survival showed much less drought resistance in Pinus sylvestris than in Pinus cembra which is in contrast to their phytogeographic distributions. Thus, the montane pine ecocline in the Swiss Central Alps seems to be stabilized by species interactions and may not be directly responsive to moderate climatic change, which needs to be taken into account in predictive attempts.
