Аннотация:Ninety-eight percent of recently surveyed papers in fisheries and aquatic sciences that did not reject some null hypothesis (H 0 ) failed to report β, the probability of making a type II error (not rejecting H 0 when it should have been), or statistical power (1 – β). However, 52% of those papers drew conclusions as if H 0 were true. A false H 0 could have been missed because of a low-power experiment, caused by small sample size or large sampling variability. Costs of type II errors can be large (for example, for cases that fail to detect harmful effects of some industrial effluent or a significant effect of fishing on stock depletion). Past statistical power analyses show that abundance estimation techniques usually have high β and that only large effects are detectable. I review relationships among β, power, detectable effect size, sample size, and sampling variability. I show how statistical power analysis can help interpret past results and improve designs of future experiments, impact assessments, and management regulations. I make recommendations for researchers and decision makers, including routine application of power analysis, more cautious management, and reversal of the burden of proof to put it on industry, not management agencies.
