Аннотация:In Orvieto (central Italy), overconsolidated clay slopes are affected by intermittent slow movements at the top of the clay formation and within the landslide debris cover. Monthly data from inclinometers, Casagrande piezometers, and rainfall gauges show that velocity, pore pressure, and rainfall are closely related. A relationship is suggested to predict slope re-activation using rainfall history alone, once a pore pressure threshold has been reached and response of pore pressures to rainfall is understood. Pore pressures have been continuously monitored through vibrating wire cells. The threshold for shallow movements, critical for infrastructures and buildings, was identified by comparing displacement histories of a shallow movement, representative of many other ones recognized over the slope, and pore pressure, both measured at the centre of the sliding mass. The impact of infiltrated rainfall on groundwater flow was investigated through transient seepage analyses. Seepage analyses performed using hydraulic properties from laboratory and in situ tests do not fully depict the observed pore pressures because field data miss some structural characters and lithologic variations. The hydraulic properties of the shallower model layers were refined, based on field observations and interpretation of monitoring data, to have a good match between computed and measured pore pressures. Once the model is tested at different locations along a slope, it could be used to predict movement re-activation using only rainfall data.
