Библиографическое описание:АНАЛИЗ ЭКСТРЕМАЛЬНЫХ МЕТЕОРОЛОГИЧЕСКИХ И ГИДРОЛОГИЧЕСКИХ СИТУАЦИЙ В БАССЕЙНЕ р. МАЙМА (Республика Алтай) : научное издание / Д. В. Черных, О. П. Николаева. - Текст : непосредственный // Устойчивое развитие горных территорий. - 2020. - Т. 12, № 2. - С. 237-245. - ISSN 1998-4502. - ISSN 2499-975X, DOI 10.21177/1998-4502-2020-12-2-237-245.
Аннотация:Путем обработки многолетних рядов метеорологических данных и расходов воды для бассейна р. Майма (Республика Алтай) были рассчитаны параметры экстремальных гидрометеорологических ситуаций, определяемых по индексу засушливости и по характеристикам фрагментов гидрографа стока за пределами заданных пороговых значений расходов воды (10% и 90% обеспеченностей). Проведена оценка взаимосвязи между рассчитанными параметрами экстремальных метеорологических и гидрологических ситуаций разного знака.
The main aim of the academic research is interaction detection based on materials of the Mayma river basin (Altay Republic) between extreme meteorological and hydrographic situations.Method of research: Extreme meteorological and hydrographic situations analyze was carried out upon predictive the criterion of drought and probability curve that was calculated using the annual average river discharge. Pearson’s code and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient were used for the determination of interaction detection between the parameters that characterize meteorological and hydrographic situations.Research result: Conducted analyze of meteorological parameters anomalies allowed to distinguish two periods that are different from each other according to frequency years with different regimes of wetness. 1940/41 is the period with domination of «wetted» and «overwetted» years. 1976/77 and 1977/78-2013/2014 are the periods with high frequency of «dry» years. The probability curve was calculated according to the analyze of long-term range of annual average the Mayma river water discharge. Separate years according to the water content groups were distinguished: years with extreme little water (9,5 %), years with little water (31,1%), well watered years (20,3 %), extreme watered years (9,5 %). Calculation of Pearson’s (R = - 0,59) and Spearman’s correlation coefficients (ρ = - 0,628) allowed to determine moderate linear correlation dependence between annual average flowing and wetness conditions for level of significance α=0,05. The revealed interrelation was confirmed by the synchronous display of extreme meteorological and hydrological situations in certain years.Conclusions: The analyze of hydro meteorological facts of the Mayma river basin allowed to distinguish two periods that are different from each other according to their regimes of wetness and character of the river water content: more “wetted” and wetted, more “dry’ and with little water. There is moderate linear correlation dependence between the parameters of river annual average discharge and dryness index values. This fact confirms important influence of meteorological factors on the river water content. At the same time there cannot be absolute dependence between extreme meteorological and hydrological situations that were determined according to annual average parameters. Preceding year’s autumn wetness, weather condition of snow melting and other factors significantly infiuence on the river flowing, particular on its maximum rating.
