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Regional climate assessment of precipitation and temperature in Southern Punjab (Pakistan) using SimCLIM climate model for different temporal scales

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Abstract

Unbalanced climate during the last decades has created spatially alarming and destructive situations in the world. Anomalies in temperature and precipitation enhance the risks for crop production in large agricultural region (especially the Southern Punjab) of Pakistan. Detailed analysis of historic weather data (1980–2011) record helped in creating baseline data to compare with model projection (SimCLIM) for regional level. Ensemble of 40 GCMs used for climatic projections with greenhouse gas (GHG) representative concentration pathways (RCP-4.5, 6.0, 8.5) was selected on the baseline comparison and used for 2025 and 2050 climate projection. Precipitation projected by ensemble and regional weather observatory at baseline showed highly unpredictable nature while both temperature extremes showed 95 % confidence level on a monthly projection. Percentage change in precipitation projected by model with RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5 showed uncertainty 3.3 to 5.6 %, 2.9 to 5.2 %, and 3.6 to 7.9 % for 2025 and 2050, respectively. Percentage change of minimum temperature from base temperature showed that 5.1, 4.7, and 5.8 % for 2025 and 9.0, 8.1, and 12.0 % increase for projection year 2050 with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and maximum temperature 2.7, 2.5, and 3.0 % for 2025 and 4.7, 4.4, and 6.4 % for 2050 will be increased with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Uneven increase in precipitation and asymmetric increase in temperature extremes in future would also increase the risk associated with management of climatic uncertainties. Future climate projection will enable us for better risk management decisions.

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Acknowledgments

The corresponding author (Wajid NASIM) is highly thankful to Government of Australia, for Endeavor Research Award/Fellowship (No. 4915_2015) for The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Sustainable Agriculture, National Research Flagship, Toowoomba-QLD 4350, Australia. Moreover, first author is grateful to the International Global Change Institute (IGCI) Hamilton, New Zealand for providing software (SimCLIM 2013), for providing required climatic dataset for future projections with respect to Southern Punjab, Pakistan. Furthermore, co-authors (Wajid NASIM and Shakeel AHMAD) are thankful to Higher Education Commission (HEC), Pakistan, for partial funding.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Sciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT), Vehari, 61100, Pakistan

    Asad Amin, Wajid Nasim, Muhammad Mubeen & Hafiz Mohkum Hammad

  2. CIHEAM-Institute Agronomique Mediterraneen de Montpellier (IAMM), 34090, Montpellier, France

    Wajid Nasim

  3. CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystem, National Agricultural Research Flagship, Toowoomba, QLD, 4350, Australia

    Wajid Nasim

  4. SMEC Consultancy Services, Lahore, 54660, Pakistan

    Saleem Sarwar

  5. CLIMsystems, Flagstaff Hamilton, 3210, New Zealand

    Peter Urich

  6. Agro-Climatology Laboratory, Department of Agronomy, University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, 38040, Pakistan

    Ashfaq Ahmad, Aftab Wajid, Tasneem Khaliq & Fahd Rasul

  7. Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Ghazi University, Dera Ghazi Khan, Pakistan

    Muhammad Ishaq Asif Rehmani

  8. Department of Environmental Sciences, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Abbottabad, 22060, Pakistan

    Hussani Mubarak & Nosheen Mirza

  9. National Engineering Research Center for Control and Treatment of Heavy Metal Pollution, Changsha, 410083, China

    Hussani Mubarak & Nosheen Mirza

  10. Department of Environmental Engineering, School of Metallurgy and Environment, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, 410083, China

    Hussani Mubarak & Nosheen Mirza

  11. Department of Environmental Sciences, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan

    Abdul Wahid

  12. Department of Agronomy, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan

    Shakeel Ahamd

  13. College of Plant Science and Technology, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430070, People’s Republic of China

    Shah Fahad & Mohammad Nauman Khan

  14. National Key Laboratory of Crop Genetic Improvement, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430070, People’s Republic of China

    Abid Ullah

  15. College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China

    Asif Ameen

  16. Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Crop Production, The University of Agriculture, Peshawar, 25130, Pakistan

    Amanullah

  17. Agricultural University, Faisalabad, 38000, Pakistan

    Babar Shahzad

  18. Department of Horticulture, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, China

    Shah Saud

  19. Department of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Science, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, 21589, Saudi Arabia

    Hesham Alharby

  20. National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, 1 Weigang Road, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210095, People’s Republic of China

    Syed Tahir Ata-Ul-Karim

  21. Department of Agriculture, University of Swabi, Swabi, Pakistan

    Muhammad Adnan

  22. Institute of Crop Science and Zhejiang Key Laboratory of Crop Germpalsm, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310058, China

    Faisal Islam

  23. College of Horticulture and Forestry Sciences, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, Hubei, 430070, People’s Republic of China

    Qazi Shoaib Ali

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  1. Asad Amin
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  2. Wajid Nasim
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  3. Muhammad Mubeen
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  4. Saleem Sarwar
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  5. Peter Urich
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  6. Ashfaq Ahmad
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  7. Aftab Wajid
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  8. Tasneem Khaliq
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  9. Fahd Rasul
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  10. Hafiz Mohkum Hammad
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  11. Muhammad Ishaq Asif Rehmani
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  12. Hussani Mubarak
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  13. Nosheen Mirza
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  14. Abdul Wahid
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  15. Shakeel Ahamd
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  16. Shah Fahad
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  17. Abid Ullah
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  18. Mohammad Nauman Khan
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  19. Asif Ameen
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  20. Amanullah
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  21. Babar Shahzad
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  22. Shah Saud
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  23. Hesham Alharby
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  24. Syed Tahir Ata-Ul-Karim
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  25. Muhammad Adnan
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  26. Faisal Islam
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  27. Qazi Shoaib Ali
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Corresponding authors

Correspondence to Wajid Nasim or Shah Fahad.

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Amin, A., Nasim, W., Mubeen, M. et al. Regional climate assessment of precipitation and temperature in Southern Punjab (Pakistan) using SimCLIM climate model for different temporal scales. Theor Appl Climatol 131, 121–131 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1960-1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-016-1960-1