Skip to main content
Springer Nature Link
Log in

Regional ash fall hazard I: a probabilistic assessment methodology

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Bulletin of Volcanology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Volcanic ash is one of the farthest-reaching volcanic hazards and ash produced by large magnitude explosive eruptions has the potential to affect communities over thousands of kilometres. Quantifying the hazard from ash fall is problematic, in part because of data limitations that make eruption characteristics uncertain but also because, given an eruption, the distribution of ash is then controlled by time and altitude-varying wind conditions. Any one location may potentially be affected by ash falls from one, or a number of, volcanoes so that volcano-specific studies may not fully capture the ash fall hazard for communities in volcanically active areas. In an attempt to deal with these uncertainties, this paper outlines a probabilistic framework for assessing ash fall hazard on a regional scale. The methodology employs stochastic simulation techniques and is based upon generic principles that could be applied to any area, but is here applied to the Asia-Pacific region. Average recurrence intervals for eruptions greater than or equal to Volcanic Explosivity Index 4 were established for 190 volcanoes in the region, based upon the eruption history of each volcano and, where data were lacking, the averaged eruptive behaviour of global analogous volcanoes. Eruption histories are drawn from the Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program catalogue of Holocene events and unpublished data, with global analogues taken from volcanoes of the same type category: Caldera, Large Cone, Shield, Lava dome or Small Cone. Simulated are 190,000 plausible eruption scenarios, with ash dispersal for each determined using an advection–diffusion model and local wind conditions. Key uncertainties are described by probability distributions. Modelled results include the annual probability of exceeding given ash thicknesses, summed over all eruption scenarios and volcanoes. A companion paper describes the results obtained for the Asia-Pacific region

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Arnold M, Dilley M, Deichmann U, Chen RS, Lerner-Lam AL (2005) Natural disaster hotspots: a global risk analysis. In: Disaster risk management 5. World Bank: Washington, DC. pp 1–145

  • Bacon CR (1982) Time-predictable bimodal volcanism in the Coso Range, California. Geology 10(2):65–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bebbington M, Cronin S (2011) Spatio-temporal hazard estimation in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand, with a new event-order model. Bull Volcanol 73(1):55–72

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Blong RJ (1984) Volcanic hazards: a sourcebook on the effects of eruptions. Academic, Australia, pp 1–424

    Google Scholar 

  • Bonadonna C, Connor CB, Houghton BF, Connor L, Byrne M, Laing A, Hincks TK (2005) Probabilistic modeling of tephra dispersal: hazard assessment of a multiphase rhyolitic eruption at Tarawera, New Zealand. J Geophys Res 110(B03203):1–21

    Google Scholar 

  • Carey S, Sigurdsson H (1989) The intensity of plinian eruptions. Bull Volcanol 51(1):28–40

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coles SG, Sparks RSJ (eds) (2006) Extreme value methods for modelling historical series of large volcanic magnitudes. Special Publications of IAVCEI, Geological Society, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Connor CB, Hill BE, Winfrey B, Franklin NM, La Femina PC (2001) Estimation of volcanic hazards from tephra fallout. Nat Hazards Rev 2(1):33–42

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ewert JW (2007) System for ranking relative threats of U.S. volcanoes. Nat Hazards Rev 8(4):112–124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ho C-H (1990) Bayesian analysis of volcanic eruptions. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 43(1–4):91–98

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoblitt RP, Miller CD, Scott WE (1987) Volcano hazards with regard to siting nuclear power-plants in the Pacific Northwest. United States Geological Survey open-file report 87–297

  • Hurst AW (1994) ASHFALL, a computer program for estimating volcanic ash fallout: report and users guide. Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences Science Report 94

  • Hurst T, Smith W (2004) A Monte Carlo methodology for modelling ashfall hazards. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 138(3–4):393–403

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jenkins SF, Magill CR, McAneney KJ (2007) Multi-stage volcanic events: a statistical investigation. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 161(4):275–288

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jenkins S, Magill C, McAneney J, Hurst AW (2008) Multi-stage volcanic events: tephra hazard simulations for the Okataina Volcanic Center, New Zealand. J Geophys Res (Earth Surface) 113(F04012)

  • Jenkins S, McAneney J, Magill C, Blong R (2012) Regional ash fall hazard II: Asia-Pacific modelling results and implications. Bull Volcanol. doi:10.1007/s00445-012-0628-7

  • Klein FW (1984) Eruption forecasting at Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. J Geophys Res 89(B5):3059–3073

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Macedonio G, Costa A, Folch A (2008) Ash fallout scenarios at Vesuvius: numerical simulations and implications for hazard assessment. J Geophys Res 178(3):366–377

    Google Scholar 

  • Machida H, Arai F (1992) Atlas of tephra in and around Japan. University of Tokyo Press (in Japanese), Tokyo, pp 1–276

    Google Scholar 

  • Magill C, Blong R (2005) Volcanic risk ranking for Auckland, New Zealand. II: hazard consequences and risk calculation. Bull Volcanol 67(4):340–349

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marzocchi W, Zaccarelli L (2006) A quantitative model for the time–size distribution of eruptions. J Geophys Res 111(B4):B04204

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nairn IA (2005) Volcanic hazards at Okataina Volcanic Centre. GNS Science

  • Newhall CG, Self S (1982) The volcanic explosivity index (VEI)—an estimate of explosive magnitude for historical volcanism. J Geophys Res 87:1231–1238

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Newhall CG, Bronto S, Alloway B, Banks NG, Bahar I, del Marmol MA, Hadisantono RD, Holcomb RT, McGeehin J, Miksic JN, Rubin M, Sayudi SD, Sukhyar R, Andreastuti S, Tilling RI, Torley R, Trimble D, Wirakusumah AD (2000) 10,000 years of explosive eruptions of Merapi Volcano, Central Java: archaeological and modern implications. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 100(1–4):9–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oak Ridge National Laboratory (2005) LandScanTM Global Population Database

  • Siebert L, Simkin T (2002-) Volcanoes of the world: an illustrated catalog of Holocene volcanoes and their eruptions. Smithsonian Institution, Global Volcanism Program digital information series, GVP-3. (http://www.volcano.si.edu/world/)

  • Simkin T (1993) Terrestrial volcanism in space and time. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 21:427–452

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simkin T, Fiske R (1983) Krakatau 1883: the volcanic eruption and its effects. Smithsonian Institution Press, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Simkin T, Siebert L (1994) Volcanoes of the world. Geoscience Press, Tucson, pp 1–349

    Google Scholar 

  • Small C, Naumann T (2001) The global distribution of human population and recent volcanism. Global Environ Chang Part B: Environ Hazards 3(3–4):93–109

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spence R, Gunesekara R, Zuccaro G (2009) Insurance risks from volcanic eruptions in Europe. WRN Research Bulletin, Willis Research Network

  • Thouret J-C, Lavigne F, Kelfoun K, Bronto S (2000) Toward a revised hazard assessment at Merapi volcano, Central Java. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 100(1–4):479–502

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Voight B, Constantine EK, Siswowidjoyo S, Torley R (2000) Historical eruptions of Merapi Volcano, Central Java, Indonesia, 1768–1998. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 100(1–4):69–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woods AW, Bursik MI (1991) Particle fallout, thermal disequilibrium and volcanic plumes. Bull Volcanol 53:559–570

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yokoyama I, Tilling R, Scarpa R (1984) International mobile early-warning system(s) for volcanic eruptions and related seismic activities. FP/2106-82-01 (2286), UNESCO, Paris

Download references

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Lee Siebert (Smithsonian Institution) for providing unpublished data and for helpful discussions regarding volcano type categorisation and Tony Hurst (GNS Science) for the ASHFALL source code. We also sincerely thank Costanza Bonadonna and Warner Marzocchi for providing detailed and very valuable reviews of the manuscripts and the editors of Bulletin of Volcanology for their support. This research was carried out while Susanna Jenkins was holding an International Macquarie University Research Scholarship.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Risk Frontiers, Macquarie University, Sydney, NSW, 2109, Australia

    Susanna Jenkins, Christina Magill, John McAneney & Russell Blong

  2. Department of Earth Sciences, Wills Memorial Building, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 1RJ, UK

    Susanna Jenkins

  3. AonBenfield Australia, Sydney, NSW, 2000, Australia

    Russell Blong

Authors
  1. Susanna Jenkins
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  2. Christina Magill
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  3. John McAneney
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  4. Russell Blong
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Susanna Jenkins.

Additional information

Editorial responsibility: J.C. Phillips

Appendix 1

Appendix 1

Description of terms, acronyms and mathematical notation

AEP:

Annual exceedance probability

ARI:

Average recurrence interval—approximate inverse of the annual exceedance probability

ASHFALL:

Semi-analytical two-dimensional ash dispersion model developed by GNS Science, New Zealand

Global eruption database:

The Smithsonian Institution’s Global Volcanism Program catalogue of Holocene events supplemented with further unpublished records

λ:

Averaged annual eruption probability

T :

Time period over which eruption catalogue is thought to be complete

VEI:

Volcanic explosivity index

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Jenkins, S., Magill, C., McAneney, J. et al. Regional ash fall hazard I: a probabilistic assessment methodology. Bull Volcanol 74, 1699–1712 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-012-0627-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-012-0627-8

Keywords